Global Warming – is it Real? And the answer is “Yes”

But the reason for it is Unclear.  Follow the Money Trail.

How do you measure the temperature?  Most commonly with a thermometer – which usually depends on the expansion of a liquid when it is warmed.  Its cheap and quite accurate.  Where should we put it?  (I heard that!).   But seriously – if we seek to install enough thermometers to give us a representative “average” – we have a problem.

If I buy four and set one on each side of the house, and always read them at noon, they might read something like this:  N 26F, E 33F, S 37F and W 24F.  Average is 30 F?  In the middle of the house?  No, we are witnessing the delayed effect of the position of the sun.  Better to put one in a little white shelter out in the open.  But what happens a few years from now and the trees have grown up 15 ft?    Hm.    It happens all the time.

What if the neighborhood is built up, with blacktop houses, roads, sidewalks and parking lots?  They contribute to what we call “heat islands”, right? And why do we go to the lake or the mountains in summer?  To cool off.  And what of those clearcut acres where there used to be trees and shade? And the creek dried up … At Kansas City records came from the Downtown airport then moved to a big new airport about 20 miles from the city and that, of course, put a kink in the temperature chart.

The fact is that we can not get a representative sample.  That realization caused a bit of a stink in Europe recently.  Did somebodies decide which thermometers to study and which to exclude?  Some places got warmer and some colder …  Highest bidder?

The closest we can come to an “average” relies on measurements of the temperature of the lower atmosphere as read by satellites in orbit.  They are looking at the big picture continuously, day and night, regardless of the weather on earth.  The “thermometers” are not correlated to anything on earth but to precisely known properties of platinum metal, on board.

The satellite data have been available to the public since 1979, over 30 years ago. There have been problems along the way, as when certain satellites drifted slowly out of orbit, but those problems were overcome and corrected.  Eleven satellites have contributed by sending temperature data to earth, live.

Anybody who is interested in facts can see the data on line at any time.  Simply ask for “Global Temperatures” and look at the pictures.  Go ahead.  Do it.

That was easy, wasn’t it ?  Let’s look at the chart – it’s free (paid for by taxpayers).

Courtesy http://www.drroyspencer.com

Blue dots show monthly temps.

They are joined by an irregular blue line – which shows the trend for the past 30 years.

Obviously it is not a straight line but it shows a fairly regular cycle – some down years, some up years.   Expect that to happen.

I don’t think anybody knows all the reasons for the cyclic behavior – but there you see it.

At times the cycle is disturbed by major events on earth – a shift in ocean currents, El Nino and La Nina, and a major volcanic eruption – this one at Mt Pinatubo.

The red line is called a “running 13-month average”.  The temps are averaged for 13 consecutive months and plotted, then the data are moved up a month and 13 months are averaged again.  The effect is to smooth out some of the irregularities.

As you can see that line is also cyclic but the overall trend is upward.  2010 started off warm but is coming off its peak.

In 30 years the average moved up 0.38C, which is 0.61F, which averages 0.02″F/year.

At that rate the temp would increase 2F/century.

If, if, if, if and if  …

Of course you realize that the vertical scale of the chart can be changed to either horrify or tranquilize the reader … I’m satisfied with this presentation.

Now, to repay me for my efforts, please answer this question.  Of all the people you know, of those who express opinions concerning global warming, how many have bothered to find these, the most reliable measurements?  Eh?

Next time we’ll look at the famous, or infamous, “hockey stick” curve, now updated, used to indicate a special relationship between global warming and industrial activity, especially the villainous carbon dioxide, CO2.

This post was written by

Jack Parker – who has written 6 posts on Headwaters - Community Journalism for the Great Lakes.

Jack Parker was born in England in 1930. That's what started The Depression. He studied Mining and Geological Engineering at Michigan Tech. Ten years at the White Pine Copper mine, directing Rock Mechanics. Self-employed since the first big layoff at the White Pine mine, around 1971 - a career-launching event. Continued his education by working in several hundred mines, here and abroad, solving problems. Semi-retired, living, with one wife, Lee, in Baltic, Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

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